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Saturday, 29 July 2017

THE FLYWHEEL AND THE DOOM LOOP

*Flywheel Image

Imagine that your task is to rotate a massive 30 foot, 5000 pound disk. You push with great effort, you get the flywheel to inch forward and after a few hours you get the flywheel to complete one turn. You keep pushing, and the flywheel begins to move a bit faster, with continued great effort, you move it around a second time. You keep pushing in a consistent direction. Then three turns…four….five… the flywheel builds up speed…six turns…seven….eight…it builds momentum… 20…30…50…a hundred. Then at some point – breakthrough! The momentum of the whole thing works in your favor.

*Buildup and Breakthrough
The goodtogreat companies came about by a cumulative process – step by step, similar to spinning the flywheel above. There was no single defining action, no one killer innovation, and no solitary lucky break. One Fannie Mae representative on the ‘magic moment’:
“There was no one magical event, no one turning point. It was a combination of things. More of an evolution, though the end results were dramatic.” The cumulative value of a $1 invested in Fannie Mae in 1984 would be worth $64.17 in 2000.

*The Flywheel Effect
Think of a circular model that continues to wrap around highlighted by four themes:
1. Accumulation of visible results
2. People line up, energized by results
3. Flywheel builds momentum
4. Steps forward, consistent with Hedgehog Concept

*The Doom Loop
Rather than accumulating momentum – turn by turn of the flywheel – the comparison companies tried to skip buildup and jump immediately to breakthrough. Then, with disappointing results, they’d lurch back and forth, failing to maintain a consistent direction.

Doom Loop Model:
1. No buildup; no accumulated momentum
2. Disappointing results
3. Reaction, without understanding
4. New direction, program leader, event, fad, or acquisition

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